This game had 58 winners in Round 5, in a pot that 161 people contributed to. That's a 36.02% win rate (compared to 27% average for normal games). Winners got $52.05 each, $6 less than Round 4 with fewer winners. As per usual in Round 5, a higher percentage and number of people won than in Round 4, reflecting people catching up with the lower goal. Remember in this game that the stake per round is $25 (the other $25 going to the final pot). Clearly the very high win rate means that the return on stake is lower than in the normal Transformers, but in this round they continue to pull ahead. Let's compare. In a normal Transformer, the 4nd round average prize is 36.40$ right now, or 277% of the $12.50 stake. In this game, this prize is only 208% of the $25 stake. Looked at yet another way, the average Transformer winner makes about $22 over their stake in Round 4, and in this game winners made $27 over their stake.
People who have won each round have now made $228.43 (compared to a $125 stake so far). So far, they're ahead $103. The average Transformer is only at $88 over stake at this point. So, they're $15 ahead of the average Transformer. However, in an average normal Transformer, at this point players who have won every round have won an average of $150, which means that even without the final round, they've won back all of their money (or more if they pre-paid). In this high stakes game, the total buy in is $300 (or $250 for pre-pays) so either way, they have to win the final round to make back their money.
The game lost 4 people this round, 2.42% for a natural attrition total of 6.40%. Normal game numbers are 2.78% and 6.40% - committed people.Now for the fun projections. 75 people qualified for the final round (although this number may change a bit in the next few days). That's 33.72% of the people that started the game and 36.02% of the people who were playing in Round 5. These numbers are pretty much exactly the averages for the normal games, despite the players being more committed this game.
If all 75 people make 10% by the end of Round 6, a winning share should be about $227. In the games that have already ended, about 83% of the people actually make it, which would bring the winning share to about $273. Since this game has had very strong players, I'm guessing the final number will be closer to the lower amount than the higher amount. And either way, this could mean we see the first application of the "No Lose Guarantee" to a Transformer. A pay-monthly player will have staked $300 on this game. If they win, they have to get at least $300 back. I have no way of knowing whether there are any players that haven't won any of the intermediate rounds, but those would be the people who would get the DB forfeit, I think. Interesting to see what will happen. Good luck, everyone!
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