Dec 2 Transformer - Round 5 Results and Final Projections

This game had 98 winners in Round 5, in a pot that 385 people contributed to. That's a 25.45% win rate (about 3% lower than average). As per usual in Round 5, a higher percentage and number of people won than in Round 4, reflecting people catching up with the lower goal.  Winners got $36.83 each (about $2 more than average). People who have won each round have now made $150.79 (about $2 less than average).  The game lost about 1.53% of players this round, for a natural attrition total of 9.84%.  Both numbers are a little lower than average. 

Now for the fun projections. 130 people qualified for the final round (although that number may change a bit).  That's 30.44% of the people that started the game and 33.77% of the people who were playing in Round 5. Both of these numbers are a little lower than average - weaker players in this game.

If all 130 people make 10% by the end of Round 6, a winning share should be about $160. In the games that have already ended, about 83% of the people actually make it, which would bring the winning share to about $193.  Good luck, everyone.

(Note: I write posts about the stats for all the games that are running, not just the ones I'm playing in, but my posts only appear in the feeds for my games.  If you are in other games, feel free to post my blog there so people can see how they are doing.  I'm currently in the Dec 2 and Feb 18 games.  If you add me as a friend, you will get a notification about all the stats posts I make.  You can also join the Transformers Data Nerds group: https://www.dietbetter.com/community/groups/7-transformers-data-nerds and our Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DietBet.March/ ).

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GeminiWitch83 Amanda

05/07/2015 7:17AM
Thanks! I always look forward to reading your blogs about the rounds for the 6 month games I am in. I too am a numbers junkie and love seeing all the facts that you lay out in them. I do not have experience to compare the numbers to other games, so I enjoy reading your blogs where you do all the comparisons!

amybang

05/05/2015 10:25AM
Yes, it's very common to lose that many players in Round 6. Only about 1/3 qualify for the final round in any game. I'm guessing our final prize will be a bit higher than average because we had lower than average drop-outs earlier in the game. That means more people stayed in giving their money to the final pot that they can't share in.

GeminiWitch83 Amanda likes this comment.

GeminiWitch83 Amanda

05/04/2015 3:38PM
This is my first 6 month game. I saw the results this morning and that only 130 people qualified for round 6 of this game. I was completely shocked that so many people were disqualified. I do want to note that 98 people won this round and 110 people won the last round. However, the percentage rate may have been higher this time. I was hoping to find your post on this tonight though because I was curious if it is common for only about 1/3 of the original game members to make it to the 6th round. It seems like a very high number to lose almost 2/3 of the participants by this time. Also, I am curious to see the end of the final round and see if the winnings turn out to be average or higher or lower than average.

Games played

9

Weight lost

-29.3%

Winnings

$1830.64

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